Purpose
A leaderboard of high-reward markets is only useful alongside a measure of how likely each market is to lose money. The risk score is that measure. The methodology is documented in full. A score that can be inspected earns more trust than an opaque one, so every input and the logic combining them is described below.The score answers one question: how risky is it to farm rewards in this market right now? A low score indicates rewards are likely to persist; a high score indicates an adverse fill could erase them.
Inputs
Volatility (multi-window)
Price movement across 3-hour, 24-hour, and 7-day windows. Low, stable volatility is the strongest indicator of a safe market.
Time to Resolution
Markets near resolution carry sharper, more sudden risk. Distance to resolution moderates the score.
News and Catalyst Exposure
Identifies markets tied to imminent, binary, headline-driven events, where a single update can move price sharply.
Spread Width
Wide spreads often signal uncertainty and adverse-fill risk, even where reward rates appear large.
Order-Book Depth
Thin books move more on each fill, amplifying the cost of an ill-timed fill.
Reward Rate
The reward on offer, used as the numerator against the factors above to produce a risk-adjusted return.
How the Inputs Combine
Normalize each input
Every signal is scaled to a common 0–100 range so no factor dominates due to its units.
Weight by impact on adverse-fill risk
Volatility and book depth carry the most weight, as they most directly determine the cost of a bad fill. Time to resolution and catalyst exposure adjust the result.
Produce a 0–100 risk score
A low score indicates a safe market; a high score flags danger. The score is displayed next to the raw reward rate.